“In Stunning Upset, Brown Captures US Senate in Mass.”
“Scott Brown Roars to Senate Upset Win”
“G.O.P. Senate Victory Stuns Democrats”

Now that Scott Brown has been sworn in as the junior Senator from Massachusetts, I decided to revisit this story within the context of healthcare reform. As I re-read these headlines on Brown’s “upsetting” win over Attorney General Martha Coakley for the U.S. Senate seat a few weeks ago, I couldn’t help but wonder — “should we really have been that surprised?” In retrospect, let’s take a look at the evolution of the public sentiment specific to healthcare reform (stats courtesy of Gallup polling):

Stage 1: Cautiously Hopeful

  • 73% of Americans say they are confident in doctors to recommend the right thing for reforming the U.S. healthcare system. More than President Obama (58%), Democrats in Congress (42%), and Republicans in Congress (34%) — June 2009
  • Seven in 10 Americans favor the passage of new healthcare reform legislation, but less than half (41%) say a new law needs to be passed this year — July 2009

Stage 2: Doubt Takes Root

  • 39% of Americans say they would direct their member of Congress to vote against a healthcare reform bill this fall, while 37% want their member to vote in favor — September 2009
  • Only 38% of Americans believe that President Obama’s healthcare plan will be able to accomplish all he intends — September 2009

Stage 3: The Death Knell Sounds

  • Congress approval rating down to 21%, with a 72% disapproval rating — October 2009
  • More Americans now say it is not the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage (50%) than say it is (47%) — November 2009
  • In the wake of Republican Scott Brown’s victory in the U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts, the majority of Americans (55%) favor Congress’ putting the brakes on its current healthcare reform efforts and considering alternatives that can obtain more Republican support — January 2010

Clearly, as 2009 came to a close, Americans grew more skeptical about the rush by Congressional Democrats to pass healthcare reform legislation. The lack of bipartisan support and the notorious back-room deals required to move the legislation forward (ahem, Ben Nelson) only heightened the skepticism. As Election Day in Massachusetts drew closer, it seemed as if every major media pundit made sure to remind the American people that this Senate seat could make or break the current push for healthcare reform. The election of a Republican to fill Kennedy’s vacant seat became the only “hope” left to stall the legislation. The citizens of Massachusetts — arguably the most liberal state in the union, as well as a state that has already embraced universal health coverage — sent a clear message on behalf of the majority of Americans everywhere:  “If we are going to do this, we need to do this the right way — not right away.”

— Carlos M. Nunez, M.D.